Light snow is expected in the high-lying areas of Eastern Cape and southern KwaZulu-Natal this weekend 29 September- 1 October.
This is according to a media release issued by the SA Weather Service that also warns of strong to possible gale-force winds between Cape Agulhas and Gqeberha (aka Port Elizabeth) on Sunday, spreading as far as East London by Monday morning..
After the recent snow event of 19 to 22 September 2024 that wreaked havoc on roads between Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape, light snow can be expected over the Drakensberg this weekend. Weather conditions are expected to change significantly as an upper trough system associated with a ridging high-pressure system at the surface will introduce significant cooling over the escarpment regions of South Africa (extending from the Western Cape, up to the southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal). Daytime temperatures are expected to start cooling down over the Western Cape from Sunday, 29 September 2024, reaching the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal region by Monday, 30 September 2024.
The expected snowfall will follow a similar trend; starting in the Western Cape early on Sunday morning (29 September 2024), and spreading eastward towards KwaZulu-Natal Monday morning (30 September 2024). Snowfall is expected to clear up in the Western Cape and western parts of the Eastern Cape by Monday evening. Snowfall will however persist on Tuesday (1 October 2024) over the eastern parts of Eastern Cape and southern KwaZulu-Natal.
A cold front with an associated upper trough arrives in the Western Cape on Saturday afternoon, 28 September 2024, resulting in showers and rain in the south-western parts of the Western Cape as well as isolated showers and thundershowers over the western and central interior of the country. As the cold front moves eastward across the country, onshore flow along the south coast will continue to result in showers and rain persisting into the evening hours. With the cold front already resulting in cooler surface conditions, another upper trough associated with the ridging high-pressure behind the cold front will further cool down the surface temperatures on Sunday, 29 September 2024, especially along the high-lying regions of the Western Cape and into the southern parts of the Northern Cape.
As the ridging high-pressure system continues to move eastwards, the temperatures are expected to drop further to very cold conditions (maximum temperatures of less than 10℃) over the escarpment of the Eastern Cape and southern KwaZulu-Natal into Monday, 30 September 2024. Strong to possible gale force winds as well as ocean swells between 4,0 to 6,0 m can also be expected along the south coast from Sunday into Monday morning as the ridging high-pressure moves through.
Daily rainfall accumulation is not expected to exceed 30 mm over the period of 29 September until 1 October 2024. Light snowfall is likely to occur over the high-lying regions of Western Cape, southern Northern Cape, Eastern Cape as well as southern KwaZulu-Natal.
As the cold front moves across the country, Figure 1 indicates cold to very cold conditions along the south-western parts of the country (A) with rainfall, not exceeding 25 mm, expected over most of the western and central parts of South Africa (B). Light snowfalls can be expected over the high-lying regions of the Western Cape and places along the extreme-southern parts of the Northern Cape. Significant marine swells with heights between 4,0 to 6,0 m can be expected between Saldanha Bay and Plettenberg Bay on Sunday morning, spreading to Port Shepstone by Monday afternoon.
Strong to possible gale-force winds can also be expected between Cape Agulhas and Gqeberha (previously Port Elizabeth) on Sunday, spreading as far as East London by Monday morning.
As the cold front exits the country on Monday, 30 September 2024, the ridging high-pressure starts to dominate, resulting in cold to very cold conditions along most of the southern region of the country. Rainfall amounts of less than 30 mm are expected along the south and east coast.
Light snowfalls are expected to begin in the Eastern Cape and southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal on Monday, persisting into Tuesday morning along southern KwaZulu-Natal as indicated in Figure 3.
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models currently indicate that accumulated snowfall depth is not likely to exceed 2 cm, however, this forecast may change closer to the time of the event. At this stage, the South African Weather Service does NOT expect the N3 (including van Reenen’s Pass) to be significantly affected this weekend.
The ridging high-pressure system is ultimately expected to weaken and exit the country from Tuesday afternoon. Daytime temperatures are expected to recover quickly from Sunday into Monday across eastern South Africa.
Please note that this system is significantly different from the previous snow event, therefore the impacts expected are not as significant as the snow event of 19 – 22 September 2024. The South African Weather Service will therefore continue to monitor any further developments relating to this weather system and will issue subsequent updates as required. Furthermore, the public is urged and encouraged to regularly follow weather forecasts on television and radio.
Updated information in this regard will regularly be available at www.weathersa.co.za as well as via the SA Weather Service X account: @SAWeatherServic
